Increasing minimum wage good intention, lousy policy

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Appeared in the Vancouver Sun

Despite British Columbia's slowing economy and rising unemployment, unions and other activists continue to advocate for a significant increase in the province's minimum wage.

For example, the B.C. Federation of Labour, among others, wants a $10 per hour minimum wage, up from $8, a 25-per-cent hike.

Minimum wage advocates argue that increases are needed to reduce poverty among the working poor and that it can miraculously be done without negatively affecting employment. The reality, however, is that increases in the minimum wage come with serious negative costs, particularly for those workers it is intended to help.

The most damaging impact of minimum wage increases is that employers respond by reducing the number of workers they employ and/or the number of hours their employees work. In other words, minimum wage increases result in higher unemployment for low-skilled workers and young people.

This unpleasant reality is well-documented in the research. A review of academic studies from Canada and around the world demonstrates convincingly that high minimum wages lead to lower employment levels.

For example, a recent, comprehensive study by renowned minimum wage experts Prof. David Neumark, of the University of California, and Dr. William Wascher, U.S. Federal Reserve Board economist, reviewed more than 100 studies covering 20 countries over the past 15 years and found that the overwhelming majority of studies, especially the most credible, consistently show that minimum wage increases result in decreases in employment.

Closer to home, 14 studies have specifically examined the impact of minimum wage increases in Canadian provinces, including B.C. The Canadian research indicates that a 10-per-cent increase in the minimum wage is likely to decrease employment by three to six per cent among all young workers (aged 15 to 24). For those young workers most directly affected -- earning between the current $8 per hour and the proposed $10 -- the impact is more acute, experiencing employment losses of 4.5 to 20 per cent.

Using the evidence from past experiences with minimum wage increases across Canada, we estimate that increasing B.C.'s minimum wage by 25 per cent to $10 per hour will lead to a loss of between 11,000 to 52,000 jobs for workers aged 15 to 24.

Workers lucky enough to retain their jobs if the minimum wage is increased to $10 are likely to see reductions in their hours, fringe benefits, and/or training. Again, these effects have been widely studied. For example, a recent study in the Journal of Labor Economics found that a 10-per-cent increase in the minimum wage reduced the proportion of minimum wage workers (aged 20 to 24) who received on-the-job training by two percentage points.

And if all of this wasn't enough, higher minimum wages have also been associated with increased school dropout rates. When minimum wages increase, more young people leave school in search of employment. Less education, fewer employment opportunities and less training is a deadly cocktail of results, given that experience, education and skills development are critical drivers of higher wages.

Of course some minimum wage earners will benefit, but the typical minimum wage earner is not the person depicted by the advocates of higher minimum wages.

The reality is, the majority of 'typical' minimum wage workers are young people, often students living at home.

The latest available data from Statistics Canada reveals that only 3.4 per cent of workers in B.C. earned the minimum wage. Of these, 56 per cent were between 15 and 24 years old, most of whom (87 per cent) were living at home with family. Many of the remaining individuals earning minimum wages were adults supplementing their family income with part-time work during child-rearing years or after retirement. This means any changes to the minimum wage will mainly affect younger workers and have a negligible impact on working adults or those supporting families.

Finally, it is important to note that minimum wage work is largely a temporary experience. Research shows that after one year, more than 60 per cent of minimum wage workers earn more than the minimum wage, with a typical wage gain of about 20 per cent.

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