Ontario Prosperity

Measuring Ontario’s Regional Prosperity Gap, 2022 Update

— Feb 1, 2022

Measuring Ontario’s Regional Prosperity Gap: 2022 Update is a new study that compares average incomes in Ontario, Quebec and eight American states in the Great Lakes region. It finds that in 2020, Ontario’s GDP per person trailed neighbouring Michigan by over $6,000, and in fact, Ontario lags the regional average GDP per person by $19,219 or 32.7 per cent.

Uneven Job Creation in Ontario’s Urban Centres from 2008 to 2019

— Jan 5, 2022

Uneven Job creation in Ontario’s Urban Centres from 2008 to 2019 finds that despite the rate of job creation in the Toronto and Ottawa areas exceeding the national average, most other Ontario cities, towns and rural areas experienced little or no job growth since the 2008/09 recession.

The Implications of an Aging Population for Government Finances in Ontario

— Nov 9, 2021

The Implications of an Aging Population for Government Finances in Ontario is a new study that finds health-care expenditures in the province will increase by an estimated 4.1 per cent annually (on average) over the next 20 years, and as a result of Ontario’s changing demographics, the province may not balance its budget until at least 2040/41 unless it makes changes to its spending.

An Assessment of Recent Economic Performance and Business Investment Growth in Ontario

— Sep 28, 2021

An Assessment of Recent Economic Performance and Business Investment Growth in Ontario finds that the average rate of economic growth from 2000 to 2019 (excluding 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic) was weaker in Ontario than it was in the other large Canadian provinces. In fact, Ontario’s rate of business investment growth over the same period was the third lowest in Canada ahead of just New Brunswick and Nova Scotia.

Ford Government Fiscal Policy Approach Mirrors that of McGuinty and Wynne

— Jun 8, 2021

Ford Government Fiscal Policy Approach Mirrors that of McGuinty and Wynne finds that the current Ontario government is continuing the fiscal approach of the previous Wynne and McGuinty governments, excluding emergency COVID spending. In fact, according to 2021 budget forecasts, over the next three years government spending (minus interest costs) will increase by a cumulative total of 8.5 per cent compared to 6.6 per cent from 2010 to 2012.

Measuring Ontario’s Regional Prosperity Gap

— Apr 27, 2021

Measuring Ontario’s Regional Prosperity Gap is a new study that compares average incomes in Ontario, Quebec and eight American states in the Great Lakes region. It finds that in 2019, Ontario’s GDP per person trailed neighbouring Michigan by nearly $4,000, and in fact, Ontario lags the regional average GDP per person by $16,607, or 27.1 per cent.

Recent Ontario Prosperity Commentaries and Blog Posts

To restore Ontario’s finances, Ford government must end carefree spending

Jake Fuss

Appeared in the Ottawa Citizen, March 20, 2023

The province's government debt burden equals 38.7 per cent of the provincial economy.

Ford rejects Harris spending approach and follows path of Wynne and Rae

Ben Eisen

Ontario is approaching an all-time high in inflation-adjusted per-person spending.

Ontario government’s spending habits belie claims of fiscal restraint

Jake Fuss

The province's spending is forecasted to be $29.4 billion higher than previously projected for 2022/23.

Ontario government spent more than $70 billion on corporate welfare

Tegan Hill, Joel Emes

Appeared in the Toronto Star, March 15, 2023

Roughly half of all business income tax revenue collected by the province was sent back to select firms and industries.

Premier Ford—one of the biggest spenders in Ontario history

Ben Eisen

Under the Ford government, inflation-adjusted per-person spending has increased by 2.4 per cent annually.

Giving large pay increases to government workers will harm Ontario’s finances

Jake Fuss, Milagros Palacios, Nathaniel Li

Government wages in the province were 10.9 per cent higher, on average, than wages in the private sector.

Ford continues string of broken promises about taxes in Ontario

Ben Eisen

Appeared in the Hub, January 10, 2023

Research suggests corporate income taxes are among the most harmful components of the provincial tax mix.

Ontario’s fiscal challenges—is there political will to address them?

Ben Eisen, Jake Fuss

Despite years of criticizing its predecessors for reckless spending, the Ford government has followed a similar fiscal path.

Ontario government should not give government workers large pay increases

Ben Eisen, Jake Fuss

Government workers in the province enjoy higher wages and benefits compared to similar private-sector workers.

Ontario’s government debt actually increased last year by $6.8 billion

Ben Eisen, Jake Fuss

Ontario’s net debt increased from $373.6 billion in 2020/21 to $380.4 billion in 2021/22.