For those who dont normally read budget documents, heres what the Alberta government just did in its 2013 budget: they abandoned the sensible budget and financial framework that former Progressive Conservative Finance Minister Jim Dinning introduced in 1993.
alberta government
Having spent itself into a considerable deficit problem, the Alberta government seems to be considering a sales tax as part of its plan to dig provincial finances out of the red (or at least theyre trying to start a discussion to that end). The alternative, were led to believe, is fewer and lower-quality public services due to obligatory spending cuts. A closer look at the facts suggests thats not the only option available.
Instead, they could choose a win-win scenario that improves health care while reducing waste and inefficiency.
The red-ink budgets that have engulfed Alberta since the last recessionAlbertas Finance Minister Doug Horner just announced this years deficit could hit $4-billion are not accidental. Such red ink is not just the result of weaker resource revenues, as Alberta Premier Alison Redford regularly claims.
The last time Alberta was in a fiscal mess due to low energy revenues and over-the-top government spending, some politicians and pundits said what Albertans really needed was higher taxes. That was back in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Those voices were wrong then and they are wrong now.
For one thing, any fantasy that a tax hike will solve Albertas fiscal woes is the preserve of people who dream in tax-happy Technicolor.
Sure, tax reform is desirable. A provincial sales tax would be smart economic policy since sales taxes are some of the least harmful imposts.
If there was any confidence that Albertas government would avoid imitating the failed policies of other provincesthink of Quebec and Ontario and their massive debtsthat faint hope for continued Alberta exceptionalism was kiboshed at the recent Progressive Conservative convention in Calgary.
Back in the mid-1990s, British Columbias New Democratic government published a pre-election budget that forecast a balanced ledger for the then-ending fiscal year. The Glen Clark government quickly dropped the writ and narrowly won re-election.
But soon after the election, the government revised its forecast. A deficit of almost $400-million was predicted, about what some private forecasters predicted back when the original budget was released.
If, as the newly released census data indicates, youre one of many arrivals to Alberta in the last half-decade, heres the shortcut to understanding Albertas politicians: On budget day, they replay their favourite spend-now, tax-later 1980s tunes.
Some history: Between the fiscal years 1986 and 1994 (fiscal years end March 31), the province of Alberta ran nine consecutive deficits. That happened because for too long, politicians assumed boom-time revenues would soon return. They were mistaken.
In his 1996 book, Against the Gods-The Remarkable Story of Risk, Peter Bernstein offers a reason why the ancient Greeks never progressed in mathematical understanding. It was, he observes, due to a lack of interest in testing their theories against the actual world. That process would have refined their ideas, given them testable hypotheses, and allowed them to properly link cause and effect.