Study
| EST. READ TIME 1 MIN.Aging population in Alberta leads to persistent deficits and increased health-care spending
The Implications of an Aging Population for Government Finances in Alberta
Summary
- Seniors currently compose 13.8 percent of Alberta’s population, and their share of the province’s population will continue to grow and reach 19.0 percent by 2043.
- This will drive increases in health care spending and slow growth in revenues, while imposing adverse effects on the provincial economy. The risk of future recessions, rising interest rates, and other unexpected events would only compound problems further.
- Health care expenditures are estimated to increase by approximately 5.6 percent annually from now until 2040/41. Put differently, Alberta’s health care spending will increase from 6.3 percent of GDP in 2019 to 7.0 percent in 2040.
- The aging population will exacerbate challenges for Alberta government finances and projections suggest the province will not see a balanced budget before 2040 at the current trajectory.
- Alberta is expected to run primary deficits (excluding interest costs) equivalent to between 1.0 and 2.0 percent of GDP, absent a change in spending or tax policy.
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Jake Fuss
Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser Institute
Jake Fuss is Director of Fiscal Studies for the Fraser Institute. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce and a Master’s Degree inPublic Policy from the University of Calgary. Mr. Fuss has written commentaries appearing in major Canadian newspapers including the Globe and Mail, Toronto Sun, and National Post. His research covers a wide range of policy issues including government spending, debt, taxation, labour policy, and charitable giving.… Read more Read Less… -
Tegan Hill
Director, Alberta Policy, Fraser InstituteTegan Hill is Director, Alberta Policy at the Fraser Institute. She holds a Bachelor of Economics and a Master’s Degree inPublic Policy from the University of Calgary. Ms. Hill’s articles have appeared in major Canadian newspapers including the Globe and Mail, National Post, and Ottawa Citizen. She specializes in government spending, taxation, and debt.… Read more Read Less…
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