Study
| EST. READ TIME 1 MIN.Aging population in BC leads to persistent deficits and increased health-care spending
The Implications of an Aging Population for Government Finances in British Columbia
Summary
- Seniors currently compose 19.2 percent of British Columbia’s population, and their share of the province’s population will continue to grow and reach nearly 26.0 percent by 2043.
- This will drive increases in health care spending and slow growth in revenues, while imposing adverse effects on the provincial economy. The risk of future recessions, rising interest rates, and other unexpected events will only compound problems further.
- Health care expenditures are estimated to increase by approximately 4.2 percent annually from now until 2040/41. Put differently, BC’s health care spending will increase from 7.6 percent of GDP in 2019 to 8.6 percent in 2040.
- The aging population will exacerbate challenges for BC government finances and projections suggest the province will not see a balanced budget before 2040 at the current trajectory.
- BC is expected to run primary deficits (excluding interest costs) equivalent to between 0.2 and 0.7 percent of GDP, absent a change in spending or tax policy.
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Jake Fuss
Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser InstituteJake Fuss is Director of Fiscal Studies for the Fraser Institute. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce and a Master’s Degree inPublic Policy from the University of Calgary. Mr. Fuss has written commentaries appearing in major Canadian newspapers including the Globe and Mail, Toronto Sun, and National Post. His research covers a wide range of policy issues including government spending, debt, taxation, labour policy, and charitable giving.… Read more Read Less… -
Nathaniel Li
Senior Economist, Fraser InstituteNathaniel Li is a Senior Economist at the Fraser Institute. He holds a B.A. from the Fudan University in China anda Ph.D. in Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics from the University of Guelph. Prior to joining the Fraser Institute, he worked for the University of Toronto as a postdoctoral fellow and the University of Guelph as a research associate. His past research work has been published in many high-quality, peer-reviewed academic journals, including the Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural Economics, Preventive Medicine, and Canadian Public Policy. His current research covers a wide range of issues in fiscal, education, and labour-market policies.… Read more Read Less…
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