Study
| EST. READ TIME 1 MIN.Aging population in Saskatchewan and Manitoba leads to persistent deficits and increased healthcare spending
The Implications of an Aging Population for Government Finances in the Prairies
Summary
- Seniors currently compose a large share of Saskatchewan and Manitoba’s population, and will constitute an even greater share of the region’s population in the years ahead.
- This will drive increases in health care spending and slow the growth in revenues, while imposing adverse effects on the provincial economies. The risk of future recessions, rising interest rates, and other unexpected events will only compound problems further.
- Health care expenditures are estimated to increase by approximately 5.4 percent annually from now until 2040/41 in Saskatchewan and by 4.9 percent in Manitoba.
- The aging population will exacerbate challenges for provincial government in the form of persistent deficits. Projections suggest that at the current trajectory the province will not see a balanced budget before 2040.
- Saskatchewan is expected to run primary deficits (excluding interest costs) equivalent to between 2.0 and 2.8 percent of GDP absent a change in spending or tax policy. Manitoba is also on track to run primary deficits of between 0.8 and 1.0 percent of GDP until 2040/41.
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Jake Fuss
Director, Fiscal Studies, Fraser InstituteJake Fuss is Director of Fiscal Studies for the Fraser Institute. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce and a Master’s Degree inPublic Policy from the University of Calgary. Mr. Fuss has written commentaries appearing in major Canadian newspapers including the Globe and Mail, Toronto Sun, and National Post. His research covers a wide range of policy issues including government spending, debt, taxation, labour policy, and charitable giving.… Read more Read Less… -
Nathaniel Li
Senior Economist, Fraser InstituteNathaniel Li is a Senior Economist at the Fraser Institute. He holds a B.A. from the Fudan University in China anda Ph.D. in Food, Agricultural and Resource Economics from the University of Guelph. Prior to joining the Fraser Institute, he worked for the University of Toronto as a postdoctoral fellow and the University of Guelph as a research associate. His past research work has been published in many high-quality, peer-reviewed academic journals, including the Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural Economics, Preventive Medicine, and Canadian Public Policy. His current research covers a wide range of issues in fiscal, education, and labour-market policies.… Read more Read Less…
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