Study
| EST. READ TIME 1 MIN.Ontario recorded lowest GDP per-person growth nationwide from 2000-2022, now it’s Canada’s economic laggard
A Tale of Two Provinces: Economic and Fiscal Performance of Ontario and Quebec in the 21st Century
- Since 2000, Quebec’s real per-capita GDP has grown at an annual average of 1.2 percent, while Ontario’s has grown at 0.7 percent—both below the Canadian average.
- Ontario and Quebec’s real per-capita GDP are decidedly mid-ranked among Canada’s provinces, with Ontario slipping from second to the middle of the pack from 2000 to 2022.
- Quebec’s economic growth has closed much of the historic income gap with Ontario but mainly because Ontario has been a laggard with respect to economic growth for most of the 21st century.
- Ontario and Quebec lag behind the Rest of Canada in productivity and growth-enhancing business investment, particularly non-residential investment.
- Over the period 2000 to 2023, Ontario has run a deficit 19 out of 24 years—or nearly 80 percent of the time. Quebec, on the other hand, has improved its fiscal management relative to Ontario and runs a deficit 14 out of 24 years or nearly 60 percent of the time.
- Quebec has lowered its net debt-to-GDP ratio substantially since 2013, while Ontario has remained stuck near 40 percent.
- When it comes to public finances, Ontario has, to some extent, become the new Quebec, and Quebec the old Ontario.
- Ontario and Quebec face ongoing challenges on both the economic and fiscal fronts due to their relatively low economic and productivity growth.
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Livio Di Matteo
Professor of Economics, Lakehead UniversityLivio Di Matteo is a Senior Fellow at the Fraser Institute and Professor of Economics at Lakehead University in ThunderBay, Ontario, where he specializes in public policy and finance, health economics, and economic history. His most recent work examines value for money in health-care spending and the drivers and sustainability of health-care spending; fiscal economic history; and the historical evolution of economic inequality in Canada and internationally. Prof. Di Matteo is a member of the CIHI National Health Expenditure Advisory Panel and a contributor to Fraser Forum, the Fraser Institute’s blog, as well as his own policy blog, Northern Economist 2.0. His op-eds have appeared frequently in many newspapers across Canada including the Globe and Mail, National Post, Financial Post, Toronto Star, Winnipeg Free Press, Waterloo Region Record, and Hamilton Spectator. He has been listed in Canada’s Who’s Who since 1995 and holds a Ph.D. from McMaster University, an M.A. from the University of Western Ontario, and a B.A. from Lakehead University.… Read more Read Less…
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