government spending

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On Monday, Finance Minister Jim Flaherty held his traditional pre-budget consultation with a number of private-sector economists, who all appear to be predicting improved growth in the Canadian economy for the coming year. This no doubt comes as welcome news to the Finance Minister, as he prepares to unveil his next budget on March 29.

But the Finance Minister should not be swayed by these optimistic growth projections; he needs to bring in a budget that will take serious aim at balancing the nation's book.

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In his recent shot at Alberta, Ontario’s premier Dalton McGuinty—who blamed the West’s resource boom for a slowdown in Ontario’s manufacturing sector—invented a fascinating explanation for the relative decline of Ontario.

While McGuinty later backtracked and claimed his original clear point was not his actual opinion, what is yet transparent is how, in McGuinty’s world, Ontario’s problems have nothing to do with his own policy choices, or events outside of Canada—say, worldwide competition in the manufacturing sector.

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With sales and profits up at General Motors, proponents of the 2009 automotive bailout for GM (and Chrysler) now assert the taxpayer-financed rescue was a success. In a visit to Michigan in late January, U.S. president Barack Obama argued the deal saved jobs. Canadian politicians, including Finance Minister Jim Flaherty, who last summer incorrectly asserted taxpayers received all their money back, have made similar boasts.

Given the revisionist history in play, let’s place that 2009 deal in proper context.

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In 2011, most economic forecasters began the year rather optimistic. British Columbia had rebounded nicely from the 2009 recession and saw its economy grow at 3.0% in 2010, robust growth most forecasters thought would continue. Indeed, the BC government’s Economic Forecast Council, a group of private-sector economists, predicted growth of 2.7% in 2011 and 3.0% for 2012.

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For those who look back on 2011 and wonder how European and American governments dug themselves into such a deep debt hole, consider this image as an explanation: Santa Claus.

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When Finance Minister Jim Flaherty announced last week that the Conservative government will miss its target for balancing the budget, he confirmed something that should be obvious to all students of recent Canadian economic history: Crossed-finger revenue forecasts and unrealistic spending growth projections are no basis for sound economic policy.

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With the release of its economic and fiscal update, the Conservative government finally confirmed it will not meet its 2014-15 target for balancing the budget.

No surprise here.

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With Ontario and Quebec accounting for nearly 60% of Canada's gross domestic product, as they go, so goes the Canadian economy. Unfortunately, the economic news from Canada's largest provinces doesn't look good, and many forecasters are now downgrading their economic growth projections.

While part of the reason for their lagging economies stems from external forces (i.e., a shaky U.S. economy), the policies implemented by the Ontario and Quebec governments have contributed to, rather than mitigated, economic woes in those provinces.


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While many Canadians were on vacation this summer, including many journalists and opposition parliamentarians who might notice taxpayer cash dribbling away, our governments continued to hand out more corporate welfare.

In late August, Ontario offered up $2-million to Dana Holdings and $3-million to Centra Industries, both in Cambridge, Ontario. Predictably, the usual flawed justification was offered: taxpayer subsidies will create or preserve jobs.