Deficits & Debt

— Apr 18, 2019
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Examining Federal Debt in Canada by Prime Minister Since Confederation

Examining Federal Debt in Canada by Prime Minister Since Confederation finds that by the end of his first term later this year, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will have increased federal debt by 5.6 per cent per person—the largest increase of any prime minister in Canadian history who didn’t govern during a world war or recession. By contrast, other recent Liberal prime ministers such as Jean Chrétien, Paul Martin and Lester Pearson who also never governed during a world war or recession all cut per-person debt—Chrétien by 13 per cent, Martin by 8 per cent and Pearson by 6 per cent.

— Feb 7, 2019
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What Happens to the Federal Deficit if a Recession Occurs in 2019?

What Happens to the Federal Deficit if a Recession Occurs in 2019? finds that the federal government’s projected 2019/20 deficit of $19.6 billion will automatically reach between $28 and $34 billion if a recession hits this year, even before the government pursues any discretionary spending, for example, stimulus spending.

— Aug 21, 2018
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Restoring Ontario's Public Finances

Restoring Ontario’s Public Finances finds that Ontario’s new provincial government can balance the budget and even cut taxes, but doing so will require a focus on spending discipline. In fact, a five per cent reduction in spending from 2017/18 levels would achieve a balanced budget by 2020/21—years earlier than the 2024/25 timeline set by the previous government—and also free up $21 billion in fiscal room, which could be used to reduce taxes.

— May 24, 2018
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The Decline of the Other Alberta Advantage: Debt Service Costs in Alberta Are Rising

The Decline of the Other Alberta Advantage: Debt Service Costs in Alberta Are Rising finds that every Albertan will pay, on average, $442 this year in interest on the province’s growing debt, compared to just $58 a decade ago. And if the province’s debt trend continues, debt-servicing costs may exceed $1,000 per person within the next 10 years.

— Mar 27, 2018
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Why Is Alberta’s Deficit Still So Big?

Why Is Alberta’s Deficit Still So Big? finds that the province’s $8.8 billion deficit this year is not primarily due to low oil prices, but is largely a product of the Notley government’s spending decisions. In fact, if the current government had adhered to the spending plan it inherited from its predecessor laid out in the 2015 budget, the deficit today would be approximately $3 billion—less than half of the deficit actually posted in the recent provincial budget.

— Feb 23, 2018
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Back on Track: How the Federal Liberals Can Deliver Their Promised Balanced Budget by 2019/20

Back on Track: How the Federal Liberals Can Deliver Their Promised Balanced Budget by 2019/20 finds that a modest one per cent reduction in program spending—spread out over two years—would achieve budget balance. Incidentally, since coming into office in 2015, the federal Liberals have increased program spending by 20.1 per cent ($51 billion) in just three years.