Study
| EST. READ TIME 2 MIN.Current Ontario government poised to outspend predecessor and increase provincial debt
Ford Government Plans to Outspend Wynne Government
Summary
- When it was in opposition, the Progressive Conservative Party of Ontario frequently criticized the fiscal records of previous Liberal governments and repeatedly committed to reducing spending, balancing the budget, and reducing the province’s debt burden.
- However, many areas of fiscal policy have been characterized by continuity rather than change since the Ford government took office. This bulletin considers the Ford government’s Budget 2022, which laid out the fiscal plan for Ontario through 2024/25.
- We find that the Ford government generally maintained higher per-capita inflation-adjusted spending during its first term in office than prevailed under Premier Wynne. Further, Budget 2022 suggests that the Ford government plans to further increase spending in its second term in office.
- Largely as a result of this spending trajectory, Budget 2022 forecasts that Ontario will continue to run operating deficits in the years ahead.
- The Ford government forecasts that the pace of debt growth will largely continue along the same trajectory as under Premier Wynne.
- If the Ford government is to fulfill its early promises of bringing sustainability to Ontario’s finances it will need to change course during its second term in office. Budget 2022, however, suggests that the government is not planning any such change—that continuity rather than change is likely to characterize provincial fiscal policy for the foreseeable future.
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Ben Eisen
Senior Fellow, Fraser InstituteBen Eisen is a Senior Fellow in Fiscal and Provincial Prosperity Studies and former Director of Provincial Prosperity Studies at theFraser Institute. He holds a BA from the University of Toronto and an MPP from the University of Toronto’s School of Public Policy and Governance. Prior to joining the Fraser Institute Mr. Eisen was the Director of Research and Programmes at the Atlantic Institute for Market Studies in Halifax. He also worked for the Citizens Budget Commission in New York City, and in Winnipeg as the Assistant Research Director for the Frontier Centre for Public Policy. Mr. Eisen has published influential studies on several policy topics, including intergovernmental relations, public finance, and higher education policy. He has been widely quoted in major newspapers including the National Post, Chronicle Herald, Winnipeg Free Press and Calgary Herald.… Read more Read Less… -
Steve Lafleur
Steve Lafleur is a research director at the Institute for Research on Public Policy, a former senior fellow of theFraser Institute and a former senior policy analyst at the Fraser Institute. He holds an M.A. in Political Science from Wilfrid Laurier University and a B.A. from Laurentian University where he studied Political Science and Economics. He was previously a Senior Policy Analyst with the Frontier Centre for Public Policy in Winnipeg and is a Contributing Editor to New Geography. His past work has focused primarily on housing, transportation, local government and inter-governmental fiscal relations. His current focus is on economic competitiveness of jurisdictions in the Prairie provinces. His writing has appeared in every major national and regional Canadian newspaper and his work has been cited by many sources including the Partnership for a New American Economy and the Reason Foundation.… Read more Read Less… -
Joel Emes
Senior Economist, Fraser Institute
Joel Emes is a Senior Economist, Addington Centre for Measurement, at the Fraser Institute. Joel started his career with theFraser Institute and rejoined after a stint as a senior analyst, acting executive director and then senior advisor to British Columbia’s provincial government. Joel initiated and led several flagship projects in the areas of tax freedom and government performance, spending, debt, and unfunded liabilities. He supports many projects at the Institute in areas such as investment, equalization, school performance and fiscal policy. Joel holds a B.A. and an M.A. in economics from Simon Fraser University.… Read more Read Less…
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