Study
| EST. READ TIME 2 MIN.Canadians experiencing second-longest and third-steepest decline in living standards in last 40 years
Changes in Per-Person GDP (Income): 1985 to 2023
- Real GDP per person is a broad measure of incomes (and consequently living standards). This paper analyzes changes in quarterly per-person GDP, adjusted for inflation from 1985 through to the end of 2023, the most recent data available at the time of writing.
- The study assesses the length (number of quarters) as well the percentage decline and the length of time required to recover the income lost during the decline.
- Over the period covered (1985 to 2023), Canada experienced nine periods of decline and recovery in real GDP per person.
- Of those nine periods, three (Q2 1989 to Q3 1994, Q3 2008 to Q4 2011, and Q2 2019 to Q2 2022) were most severe when comparing the length and depth of the declines along with number of quarters required for real GDP per person to recover.
- The experience following Q2 2019 is unlike any decline and recovery since 1985 because, though per person GDP recovered for one quarter in Q2 2022, it immediately began declining again and by Q4 2023 remains below the level in Q2 2019.
- This lack of meaningful recovery suggests that since mid-2019, Canada has experienced one of the longest and deepest declines in real GDP per person since 1985, exceeded only by the decline and recovery from Q2 1989 to Q3 1994.
- If per-capita GDP does not recover in 2024, this period may be the longest and largest decline in per-person GDP over the last four decades.
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Grady Munro
Policy Analyst, Fraser InstituteGrady Munro is a Policy Analyst at the Fraser Institute. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from MacalesterCollege in Minnesota, and a Master’s Degree in Public Policy at the University of Calgary. Mr. Munro’s commentaries have appeared in major Canadian newspapers including the Globe and Mail, Financial Post, and Toronto Sun. His research focuses on government spending, debt, and taxation.… Read more Read Less… -
Jason Clemens
Executive Vice President, Fraser Institute
Jason Clemens is the Executive Vice President of the Fraser Institute and the President of the Fraser Institute Foundation. Hehas an Honors Bachelors Degree of Commerce and a Masters Degree in Business Administration from the University of Windsor as well as a Post Baccalaureate Degree in Economics from Simon Fraser University. Before rejoining the Fraser Institute in 2012, he was the director of research and managing editor at the Ottawa-based Macdonald-Laurier Institute and prior to joining the MLI, Mr. Clemens spent a little over three years in the United States with the San Francisco-based Pacific Research Institute. He has published over 70 major studies on a wide range of topics, including taxation, government spending, labor market regulation, banking, welfare reform, health care, productivity, and entrepreneurship. He has published over 300 shorter articles, which have appeared in such newspapers as The Wall Street Journal, Investors Business Daily, Washington Post, Globe and Mail, National Post, and a host of U.S., Canadian, and international newspapers. Mr. Clemens has been a guest on numerous radio and television programs across Canada and the United States. He has appeared before committees of both the House of Commons and the Senate in Canada as an expert witness and briefed state legislators in California. In 2006, he received the coveted Canada’s Top 40 Under 40 award presented by Caldwell Partners as well as an Odyssey Award from the University of Windsor. In 2011, he was awarded (along with his co-authors) the prestigious Sir Antony Fisher International Memorial Award for the best-selling book The Canadian Century. In 2012, the Governor General of Canada on behalf of Her Majesty the Queen, presented Mr. Clemens with the Queen Elizabeth II Diamond Jubilee Medal in recognition of his contributions to the country.… Read more Read Less… -
Milagros Palacios
Director, Addington Centre for Measurement, Fraser InstituteMilagros Palacios is the Director for the Addington Centre for Measurement at the Fraser Institute. She holds a B.S. in IndustrialEngineering from the Pontifical Catholic University of Peru and a M.Sc. in Economics from the University of Concepcion, Chile. Ms. Palacios has studied public policy involving taxation, government finances, investment, productivity, labour markets, and charitable giving, for nearly 10 years. Since joining the Institute, Ms. Palacios has authored or coauthored over 70 comprehensive research studies, 70 commentaries and four books. Her recent commentaries have appeared in major Canadian newspapers such as the National Post, Toronto Sun, Windsor Star, and Vancouver Sun.… Read more Read Less…
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